Congratulations Jo Swinson – You’ve Just Made the Liberal Democrat Revival Much Harder

Jo Swinson has beaten Ed Davey to become the leader of the Liberal Democrats. How will she fair? Will she continue the Liberal Democrat revival? Can she become, as she believes she can, the next Prime Minister? History and contemporary political opinion suggests not. 

The Liberal Democrats were born from the unification of the old Liberal and Social Democratic Parties in 1989, though the two parties continued to live on as the Liberal Democrats developed a left and right-wing. Indeed, despite the Liberal Democrats reduction in size, these two wings still exist today.

The right-wing – represented by the old Liberal cohort – are Classical Liberals, which, in simple terms, mean they are as right-wing as the Tories economically, but are more tolerant to minority groups and open to equality legislation, etc. The left-wing – represented by the old Social Democrats – believe in a weak form of social democracy – allowing the state to redistribute some wealth, play a leading role in education and health, but mainly believing it is only OK for the state to step in to correct market failures. This wing is also receptive to equality legislation and minority rights.

The Liberal Democrats most successful years – 1999 to 2006 – was under a leader – Charles Kennedy – from the left-wing of the party. Due to his opposition to the Iraq war and by moving the Liberal Democrats to the left of New Labour, Kennedy managed, in 2005, to win 62 seats – the most successful election for any manifestation of the Liberal Party since 1929.

Despite this success, some Liberal Democrat MPs did not like the direction of the party under Kennedy. In 2003 these MPs edited and contributed to the Orange Book – a political manifesto of sorts, which aimed to re-establish a Classical Liberal consensus within the party. Key among these contributors was Nick Clegg. Thus, when Kennedy was forced out, and Clegg became leader in 2007, the Classical Liberals got their wish. And, slowly, they turned the Liberal Democrats more rightwards.

This rightward shift reached its climax when, after the 2010 General Election, the Liberal Democrats joined the Conservatives in government. In government, the Liberal Democrats did a lot of what they wanted: they enacted dogmatic neo-liberal economics using austerity measures, slashing the size of the welfare state and privatising what remained of Britain’s public assets, e.g. the Post Office, among other things.

However, unlike the public’s response to Charles Kennedy’s Social Liberal message, Clegg’s Classical Liberal message, and its manifestation in government policy was emphatically rejected by voters. The 2015 General Election – which saw the Liberal Democrats go from 57 to 8 MPs – was the worse in the party’s history.

But even now, despite the mounting evidence that austerity was the wrong response to the 2008 financial crisis, and despite the mounting evidence of the harm that austerity policies inflicted on those most vulnerable, key Liberal Democrats remain unrepentant. And one of those who remain unrepentant is the new Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson – a minster during the coalition government and the person who enacted some of its worse policies. 

Swinson's immediate predecessors after Clegg, Tim Farron and Vince Cable, were, unlike herself, both critical of the coalition government and both were from the left of the party. Indeed, if one gets past the hyperbolic rhetoric of Vince Cable and look at his more detailed policy suggestions, he always offered a weak form of Corbynism; not more orange book orthodoxy. Swinson, then, is the first Classical Liberal leader since Clegg.

This point, and the historical context I have briefly grounded it in, is important for any attempt to evaluate the likely success of the Liberal Democrats under Swinson. The Liberal Democrats have effectively positioned themselves as the main opposition to Brexit and have also radicalised the upper-middle and professional classes. This, along with other factors, has allowed the Liberal Democrats to detoxify their brand somewhat from the coalition years and rise again in the polls (at the time of writing, they are sat at around 20%).

However, the economic policies of the coalition years have not gained in popularity. Indeed, their popularity is perhaps even more in question than they were in 2015. Thus, the problem for Swinson, who believes the coalition government was a force for good and could not even bring herself to support a weak form of Corbynism, is that when Brexit as an issue dies – either because it is enacted or because it is stopped – the political agenda will, partiality and in time, refocus on economics, questions of ownership, etc. – topics on which she holds deeply unpopular views with an awful governmental record to boot.

When this priority shift happens, then, without the cover of Brexit, it is hard to see how the Liberal Democrats will maintain their current position in the polls. Yes, some within the professional classes are so rattled by the idea of a Corbyn government, which will mean they will have to pool a bit more of their wealth, that they will vote for Swinson whatever. Moreover, if Brexit does happen, some will still vote for the Liberal Democrats which will, in all probability, transform from the party of Remain to the party of Rejoin. However, in this context, support would still drop.

It would drop because people across the democratic world, from America, the UK, Spain, etc., are crying out for radical democracy. Democracy not only in the simple sense of voting in elections. But people having a greater degree of autonomy over their lives. To live in societies where it is commonplace for people to have control in the workplace; where pubic ownership over essential assets is the norm; where wealth is distributed to allow most citizens the chance to take up opportunities and to live fulfilling lives not limited by external circumstances. Liberal Democrat support would drop, in other words, because Jo Swinson has got nothing to say to these people – to the people who voted for Brexit, Trump, Corbyn, Podemos, etc.

Swinson believes that the country right now is OK – it just needs to be tweaked a bit. Yes, she believes that more equality legislation needs to go through – and we should not underestimate the importance of this – and she may give a nod in the direction of redistribution and a Green New Deal. But, ultimately, Jo Swinson, like Nick Clegg before her, is unlikely to address the concerns of most people; she will not offer solutions which match the size of the problems faced by the majority.

Thus, when Swinson is pitted against someone like Corbyn, who, for all his supposed faults, does offer big solutions to the problems we face, she will come out looking worse – despite what chattering class types will tell you. And until the Liberal Democrats come to terms with this fact, they will face the same fate they have under their previous right-wing, Classical Liberal leaders: rejection and obscurity.

Jack Lewis Graham